Jay Lake (jaylake) wrote,
Jay Lake
jaylake

[politics] The Iowa caucuses

I don't have a lot to add to the news stream and commentary available on every medium right now. For what it's worth, here's my viewpoint:

Democrats

I've been uncomfortable with Hillary for a long time. My sense of history would love to see a woman run and win. I'm just not sure Hillary is the right woman. She's not a liberal-progressive, rather she's running from the post-Reagan Centrist playbook. That makes her a conservative in historical terms. And her name on the ballot would be the most effective fund raising and get-out-the-vote tool the GOP could possibly have. Bashing her in the press and in the punditosphere would be all too easy, because those scripts have been in the drawer since the early 1990s. Edwards is still in the race, and he represents perhaps the most genuinely progressive thread in the campaign. His mere presence draws the others to the left. Obama, well, I'm not completely comfortable with some of his stands, but he represents significant change. Sometimes that's good. He certainly tweaks my sense of history. He'll also be harder to attack than Hillary, because while naked misogyny is fairly acceptable in our mainstream public and political discourse (especially if the woman's name is Clinton), naked racism in the mainstream is fairly hard to pull off outside of talk radio. Note that Obama's had Secret Service protection for a while. There's a lot of individual white conservatives out there with guns in their hands and Truth in their hearts for Team Obama to be concerned about.

Republicans

Guiliani tried to out-Bush Bush. McCain's Straight Talk Express has long since gone all pretzel logic. Ron Paul is the same brand of idiot as Ross Perot, from that school of thought that makes Bush neocons look like stone-cold realists. As for Romney, I've been the most worried about him, because he has the combination of media presence and money that makes for electability in a drooling stooge, viz Reagan. Huckabee's victory in Iowa is the Republican party showing its true colors. And good for them, quite frankly. Instead of an Establishment baby in a cowboy hat like Bush 43, their front-runner for the moment actually stands for all things the Republicans have pretended to stand for in the post-Nixon era. As ye sow, so shall ye reap. Of course, I'm fairly certain the GOP power brokers will work hard to crucify him over the next few rounds, but that's politics, baby.

The Electoral Process

Neither party's "front runner" ran in front. We didn't get Clinton on the [D] column, nor Guilani or Romney in the [R]. However this shakes out, I think it's good for everybody. I'll be keenly interested to see what happens in New Hampshire next week.
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