I'll stake this claim: Conventional political wisdom is already out the window. It ain't dead, it might come back, but given the current Democratic slate, it's definitely out in the yard whining to come in out of the rain.
frankwu was recently speculating about traditional indicators of electoral success, such as height. I think the old formulae may be broken, and with luck they may stay broken.What does this mean, now? Conventional political wisdom says the party with the uncontested primary process will emerge much stronger than the party with a heavily contested primary contest. This could be true, especially if the Clinton campaign reverts to smashmouth machine politics — as Hillary's attempts to seat Michigan and Florida delegates seem to indicate — but like a lot of Americans, I'm sick of win-at-any-cost politics. That brought us Newt Gingrich, Tom DeLay, and Bush-Cheney, and the resulting political blindness has driven America very far away from both our principles and our power in the world. (Got torture, anyone?)
If Hillary and Obama can fight it out on the politics of principle, I think either one of them will steamroller McCain in the fall. That's unconventional wisdom, but I'm putting my stake on it.